2008 College Football Preview Top 32

Attempting to forecast with at least some semblance of accuracy within a college football season is a thankless and arduous task. Entertaining each and every scenario of an imaginary game is simply dull. At this juncture in the pre-season, all inclinations towards the games themselves are based purely on how teams are analyzed statistically, with talent and past performance acting as the deciding credentials. However, the projected performance of a team simply cannot be forecasted based on last year’s results and the bowl season. For those individuals who fall into the trap of factoring in a “carry over” effect from past seasons, the simple truth exists that innumerable unpredictable occurrences shape the actual results of games. From turnovers, to the inexplicable, to luck; in this universe Appalachian State somehow won at Michigan and Kansas tallied 12 wins. Possessing a sense of accountability, I will stand by my predictions with 100% authority and vow to consume a finely barbequed crow with mashed potatoes on the side in the many instances that my soothsaying is flawed.

Note: I have expanded the field to 32 to spur thoughts towards a much needed playoff system. No, the precious bowl games will not be absolved of historical significance or pageantry, but a clear cut national champion can emerge in a natural and straightforward fashion.

The Top 32

Disclaimer: A pre-season prediction party holds as much weight as the words of boisterous self-proclaimed descendant of Descartes at the end of the bar.

1. Ohio State
Can a team that has stared at the many shimmering facets of a national championship and been thoroughly waxed in the last two BCS championships, break free from the chains of the runner-up hangover? Nearly everyone of consequence returns, including the majority of the nation’s best overall defense in 2007. A visit to USC and a trip to Madison loom for Tressel and troops and will determine the make-up of the BCS.
11-1 (8-0)

2. Oklahoma
Has Stoops finally lost too many veteran players from a solid system that has previously averaged 10 wins per season? Can QB Sam Bradford be relied upon and with his sophomore shoulders to be more than a game manager who flourishes against lesser opponents? The defense has multiple concerns, especially in the secondary, but the schedule is not a killer with revenge in store for Texas Tech in Norman.
11-1 (8-0)

3. Florida
If Tim Tebow stays healthy, the offense will shine. How the back seven of the defense fares against a slate of high octane opponents will determine if the Gators can make a run at a championship. As usual, the SEC schedule looks daunting but UF gets LSU and Georgia at home.
11-1 (7-1)

4. Clemson
Tommy Bowden's club carries the dubious trademark of winning the big game, while losing inexplicably to a lesser opponent. While the Tigers cannot expect the innumerable turnover feast from opponents to continue from last season, Quarterback Cullen Harper and the running back stables should correct any spurious calibration towards bad breaks. The slate of opponents is not mind boggling and the chance for regular season perfection is well within the realm of reality.
12-0 (8-0)

5. USC
Pete Carrol possesses a wonderful team based on recruiting rankings, but can the Trojans compile enough momentum to power through 13 difficult weeks in the season? Can Carrol cope with the presence of Rick Neuheisal and the subsequent downgrade in the L.A. social scene. QB Mark Sanchez and SC lost to Stanford last year in one of the biggest upsets of all-time and the offense once again will have to reload. FS Taylor Mays spearheads an unbelievably solid defense, that may not be able to cover the inadequacies and growing pains of the offense. If USC can handle Ohio State at home, the squad is in prime position to win out in the regular season. If not, Carrol may have to resort to trimming his lovely locks.
10-2 (8-1)

6. Pittsburgh
The Panthers return a veteran team that has the potential to win the right way. The offense can run the ball and control a game, while the defense is stingy. With a few breaks, this team could earn a BCS bid.
11-1 (6-1)

7. Missouri
Much to chagrin of fans in Seattle, former UW assistant Gary Pinkle built Toledo to a middleweight powerhouse and has brought the Tigers to the brink of a top-5 finish. In retrospect, Pinkle’s disconnect from Don James in the late 80’s seemed a futile gamble, but after three straight bowl appearances in Columbia, the long shot has bought the drinks for the whole bar. Other than lead actor QB Chase Daniel, Mizzou is a complete team comprised of individuals who come through in the clutch when needed. The schedule is not difficult in a contemporary sense, but history is not on the Tiger’s side, as a Missouri team has not won in Lincoln since the days of Mckinleynomics.
10-2 (6-2)

8. Miami
“Bring out the ice cubes and the hot water, this is the second half and not the second quarter,” 2 Live Crew and Coral Gables benefactor Luther Campbell eloquently rhymes into the mic with angst during the new version of the approximately titled #%&* Shop. “The ‘Canes are back and bring me some mortar!”
A painful but true fact lurks in the muck of the upcoming season. The tropical storm that was Miami football over the last two yours has been upgraded to a Hurricane. Well, at least on the defensive side of the football. Head coach Randy Shannon has emphasized the old Oakland Raiders style of play, while embracing the subtle nuances of the best and worst of South Beach. The mantra of course, simply out slug the opponent until the refs throw no less than 15 flags for unnecessary roughness. The barometer reading for Miami will be a visit to the swamp and a chance to anoint Tim Tebow in three feet into the grass.
10-2 (7-1)

9. Texas Tech
A soft spot exists in the heart of every football fan for the offense. To promote a peaceful night's sleep instead of counting sheep as a tool for passive hynosis, the steady accumulation of chunks of yardage and the explosion of fireworks on the scoreboard are imagined and cherished, leading directly to REM. The college football nation secretly roots for Mike Leach running the table and QB Graham Harrell compiling 6,000 yards and 60 touchdowns, under the stipulation of course that Tech’s surgical attack is not putting their own team’s defense under the influence of 75 points of ether. Yes, Tech will be entertaining and the defense is no longer a token group, however the level of play in the Big-12 has improved. Can Leach promote a tenacious focus that will last through out the regular season? The Red Raiders are known for losses that leave their fans frustrated, while winning games that are equally baffling. If Tech does not overlook a scary match-up in the late season against Kansas, rival Texas visits Lubbock the following week. A win over the Longhorns would setup the scenario in Norman, November 22, for the game of the year in the Big-12 South.
10-2 (6-2)

10. Wisconsin
The Badgers have found a way to quietly accumulate 10 wins per season in recent times, a testament to the system head coach has installed in Madison. The offensive line is intact, the defense is solid and the Big-Ten does possess a handful of mediocre teams. Can UW survive a scary trip to Fresno State and beat Ohio State at home?
10-2 (7-1)

11. Oregon
QB Dennis Dixon's knee injury was even more gruesome than the revolving door of decrepit uniforms. The obvious plight for head coach Mike Bellotti in 2008 clearly involves the quest of finding a starting quarterback on an otherwise balanced team. The evolution of Oregon’s scheme simply equivocates to three guaranteed victories per season and proves that good coaching in the college ranks cannot be overlooked.
10-2 (7-2)

12. LSU
Les Miles is the coach you love to hate, however he scored a few points in the off-season by finally putting to rest the Ryan Perriloux situation. The Tigers are too inexperienced to be considered BCS contenders, but can be a viable threat near the top of the polls in the early season. The rotation of Georgia onto the schedule in 2008 is an unfortunate development for Tiger fans.
10-2 (6-2)

13. South Florida
Nobody says much about the Bull's defense. Over the last three seasons, opponents have averaged less than 20 points against the aggressive scheme. Though returning starters is a highly overrated number, the offense remains virtually intact, including underrated quarterback Matt Grothe. With the Big East mediocre from top to bottom, this team has a shot at running the table.
11-1 (6-1)

14. West Virginia
Changes abound, Bill Stewart moves to the helm. Why alter the offense with all the pieces primed to amass 300 ppg on the ground and score 40 points? Sometimes coaches outthink themselves with stunning consequences. Again, good coaching is vital for the longevity of a successful program.
10-2 (6-1)

15. Virginia Tech
“Beamer Ball” has evolved into a way of life in parts of Virginny, and exemplifies the benefits of following a systemic approach to preparation. Whether or not an inexperienced Hokies squad can flourish with a manageable schedule, will determine the magnitude of post season accolades. The QB rotation, offensive line and defense are solid, but the receivers are young.
10-2 (7-1)

16. Georgia
The spark of RB Knoshown Moreno has dissipated from year’s streak of invincibility in the second half of the season. Right now the Bulldogs are a good, but will not challenge for a national title. Two factors work against UGA, including a brutal schedule and the amount of preparation time in which opposing coaches have utilized in finding a way to disrupt a productive attack. The defense is solid and the offense will have to generate amazing plays to beat South Carolina, Auburn and LSU on the road, of course Florida is on the slate in the annual festival celebrating the vibrancy surrounding the world’s most monumental consumption of cocktails.
10-2 (6-2)

17. Texas
The Longhorns give off the impression of being in a reloading phase even though QB Colt McCoy returns behind a very talented offensive line. The conference schedule is poison, playing Oklahoma, Missouri and visiting Texas Tech. Is another 2-3 loss season the cause for angst in Austin?
9-3 (5-3)

18. Auburn
Okay, they miss Florida, but have to break in a new quarterback for SEC play. A very talented team on parchment, but can it translate to wins?
9-3 (5-3)

19. Washington State
Head Coach Paul Wulfe played under the tutelage of Dennis Erickson and returns to his alma matter with a formula for winning. A vast accumulation of offensive stats has always been the mantra at WSU, and Wulfe will attempt to remove the sour taste of the emphasis on losing from the Bill Doba era. Look for flashy offensive numbers, a gambling defense and two or three stunning upsets, as the Cougs return to the elite.
9-3 (6-3)

20. Mississippi
Team defensive statistics become magnified in the SEC as a result of mediocre quarterback and listless offensive attacks. However, the Rebels boast one of the most physical and formidable defenses in the nation and according to the experts exist in the shadow of better programs. Another characteristic of the SEC, is the persistent notion to schedule weak non-conference opponents. When Mississippi travels to Florida, the Rebs should be a robust 4-0, a start which will carry the club to nine wins.
9-3 (5-3)

21. Fresno State
Pat Hill has built a formidable program in California’s heartland and has garnered the respect of the college football world by accepting the invitation to play any opponent, without stipulations. Virtually everyone returns on a veteran squad which was challenged by trips to Texas A&M and Oregon. (see opposite of SEC scheduling philosophy) The Bulldogs travel to Rutgers and Westwood, but get a chance to knock Wisconsin out of the top-ten at home.
10-2 (7-1)

22. Tennessee
Highly touted Jonathan Crompton steps behind center to attempt to lead the Vols through the minefield of the SEC. RB Arian Foster returns after eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark. The defense will be improved, but can the defense stop the better teams in the SEC? A good litmus test will be Florida at home and business trip to Athens, Georgia.
8-4 (4-4)

23. Boise State
Just how solid is the foundation in Boise. After “reloading” with a 10-3 season, the Broncos have to break in a new quarterback, yet have the opportunity to be the third WAC team in as many years to earn a BCS bid. Remember Ian Johnson? The senior who scored the deciding two point conversion in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl against the Sooners, finished with 16 touchdowns and 1000 yards last year in an abbreviated campaign. Can Boise State knock off a Pac-Ten opponent on the road? The Ducks await at Autzen and will determine whether or not Boise State finishes perfect in the regular season.
11-1 (8-0)

24. Florida State
A mediocre offense continues to plague the masses in Tallahassee. Will Drew Weatherford turn a corner with the help of RB Antoine Smith and a veteran receiving corps? The answer is a blatant “no” because FSU offensive line is inexperienced and does not have to play out of its mind thanks to impact of the Seminole’s defense. Once again the back eleven are nasty. The schedule is not difficult, with the exception of Miami and a visit from Florida.
9-3 (6-2)

25. Penn State
Once again, defense is the staple in State College. Joe Paterno has tweaked his system enough to win 29 games in the span of three seasons and instill faith in the seats of the now cavernous den of Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lion’s talent on the defensive side should offset the task of breaking in a new quarterback. Successful conference road trips to Wisconsin and Columbus are not impossible, but unlikely.
8-4 (4-4)

26. Alabama
The youth movement tugs at the shoulder pads of QB John Parker Wilson, as head coach Nick Saban plays babysitter. There is absolutely no chance for rehearsal as the Tide open up with BCS contender Clemson. Though the cries and screams of growing pains resound in Tuscaloosa, the overall season will not be a disaster thanks to a manageable schedule.
8-4 (5-3)

27. Maryland
This is a solid squad that faces a very easy schedule. Only three sure losses jump out, while the rest of the games are winnable.
8-4 (5-3)

28. Michigan
The hiring of head coach Rich Rodriguez has already brought benefits to the Wolverine program. There are rumors that the off-season conditioning was attacked with a fervor and enthusiasm not seen in years. If the speculation is a true, a lean and mean team will be ready for the opener hosting Utah. While Michigan is inexperienced in the backfield, talent alone can win 8 games in the Big-Ten.
8-4 (5-3)

29. Nebraska
The Blackshirt mentality has returned to Lincoln. Head coach Bo Pelini is a disciple of defense and should lead the Cornhuskers to a bowl game. How can he not? The opening three games of the schedule is a joke and realistically, the team has to go 5-4 in the real regular season to reach 8 wins.
8-4 (5-3)

30. Central Michigan
The elements of the MAC conference and darkhorse QB Dan Lefevour mix to formulate one of the most productive offenses in the nation. Who will be able to stop this unit? The defense is not terrible and the numbers should be there barring an injury of to the best quarterback that nobody cares to hear about.
9-3 (7-1)

31. Tulsa
Clearly, they are the favorites in Conference in USA. As Boise State and Hawaii evolved to the important bowl games, the Hurricanes are loaded on offense and play an easy schedule.
10-2 (7-1)

32. North Carolina
The Tar Heels were last a winner in 2001. Head Coach Butch Davis is another “sytem” coach who knows how to prepare for games. NC will be better on both sides of the ball and should benefit from catching some breaks. A trio of tough match-ups exists for the Heels in the early season, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, and Miami.
8-4 (5-3)



Please be wary of…

Rutgers
Central Florida
South Carolina
Washington
Arizona
Iowa
Kansas
Utah
East Carolina
Bowling Green